Bridge & Rogue One

Bridge

I needed a break from fiction so this is a path that crosses the chasm...

I looked at the news yesterday and aside from the Queen feeding some bananas to an elephant in a zoo it was all bad.  Is my problem that I get most of my news from Google News feeds perhaps there another news feed out there that is only good news who knows.  Okay so there was the announcement that NASA is going to say something profound about the two "water" planets in our solar system tomorrow.  I wonder did NASA make a deal with Trump that every now again they would make a big announcement to distract the public in exchange for less of a budget cut?  Does not appear to be working to me.

I find it somewhat curious that Trump wants China to deal with North Korea since it is:

...naturally abundant in metals such magnesite, zinc, tungsten, and iron; with magnesite resources of 6 billion tonnes (second largest in the world), particularly in the Hamgyeong-do and Jagang-do provinces. ... Coal, iron ore, limestone, and magnesite deposits are larger than other mineral commodities.

And yet he is happy to attack Syria on the grounds that Assad is a bad leader that kills his own people considering Trump is all about profit.  This attack smacks of an opportunistic gamble to grab some limelight for his failing presidency.  There is the rumour that the airbase had been cleared because someone in Trump's admin had tipped off the Russians which just adds to the theater of the whole affair.  Plus there is possibility that Assad do not have any gas left although Syria is a big place so anything is possible.  Women and children died but what did they really die for? Trump's presidency or Russia's support or Assad's need to feel like he is control of Syria.  I very much doubt if any of them considered the dying people except as a tool of publicity.

This is the world we live in everything is designed to distract us from the horrors of the middle east and war torn countries.  The problem is they have become bored and have started on destroying the countries of the west.  Trump is dismantling America piece by piece, Putin is the new Stalin putting Gay men into concentration camps, does the Road of Bones need resurfacing I wonder. If France's Marine Le Pen wins the election in May then that could be another nail in the EU coffin.

We appear to be on a slippery slope, I am just waiting for the Aliens to turn up and say "We told you so!"

Rogue One (SPOILER ALERT)

Finally watched it and it was good, a Star Wars movie that contained almost no Jedi aspects.  It was a refreshing change from the constant light sabre effects and deep things about the force.  Essentially this is a war film, it happens between episodes three and four.  The story of how the plans to the Death Star were stolen in the first place and its origin story.

It does become obvious however what the likely ending is going to be and that wars are won by soldiers.  And in this case there is no concept that war is glorious, if anybody out there still believes such nonsense try reading some World War I poetry.  I have had the good fortunate not to live through or experience war first hand but its effects are everywhere.

Like all Star Wars movies there is an element of comedy which worked much better than in the film The Force Awakens. K-2SO the new droid voiced by Alan Tudyk delivers his lines with almost British deadpan quality far better than C3PO's slightly snobbish voice ever could.

What I found curious is that when the Death Star is first fired it hits the target perfectly and wipes out a desert town however the second time it is used they miss the Empire base by miles despite being told to fire at the base.  Okay so it did destroy it from the resulting blast but did they miss on purpose so we can have the final death scene?

Yet again this film proves that being dead does not mean you cannot still be in a film Peter Cushing's CGI I have got say is quite awesome and the voice was almost spot on.  Carrie Fisher's CGI is also very good although she was in it very briefly at the end.

Overall a very good film and I will be watching it again.

Cause and Effect

Why oh why do people have absolutely no common sense and can the eurosceptics be that dumb? Or is that so that they can paid for talking complete nonsense, is that me being cynical or a realist?

There has been a lot of news and I use the term loosely about Brexit having no effect on the British Economy aside from the knee-jerk reaction it had on day when the results came out which lasted for a about couple of weeks.

All the big names that voted out are now saying it has not had any effect at all.  Err Duh!  Of course it has not had an effect we have not left yet!  We will not be leaving for at least a couple of years, the Article 50 is not due to be triggered until February 2017 which means it will not be until 2019 before we have actually left the EU assuming negotiations go without a hitch.

The effect of actually leaving the EU will start to show up about half way through 2019, maybe after six months of trading with Europe incurring import/export costs (assuming we are not allowed into the single market) plus all the extra red tape and tariffs that will be added to the cost of doing business outside the single market will begin to pile up affecting profits to British businesses.

Although the Custom & Exercise people will probably have to employ me more staff due to the extra work created by the increased red tape, so a small silver lining there.

I only hope increased trade outside of Europe will offset these losses.

Excerpt from HM Revenue & Customs Website:

"In July 2016 the value of exports (EU and Non-EU) decreased to £23.9 billion, and imports (EU and Non-EU) decreased to £39.7 billion, compared with last month. Consequently the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £15.9 billion."

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

Check out the above link for more detailed information.

Ideally we should export more than we import however since December 2015 there has been an upward trend in imports and a small decline in exports.

This link explains the importance of exports:

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/7164/trade/importance-of-exports-to-the-economy/

The upshot is there will be no effect until the cause has actually occurred unless you are a politician/eurosceptic in Britain where upon they spin the effect before the cause.

In other news Pluto has started farting out X-rays in an attempt to be less coy on the edge of the Solar System:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/20/plutos_emitting_xrays_and_nasa_doesnt_quite_know_how/

Pulling the Wool

I see Farage is being used by the Yanks now to show just how easily you can dupe the voters into doing what you want.

“You can beat the pollsters, you can beat the commentators, you can beat Washington. And you can do it by doing what we did for Brexit in Britain.”

The trick is simple really you just give them almost no information about what they are voting for and use an single election “promise” on the side of a bus that says you are going to save a lot of the taxpayers money.  Then let human nature run its course!

As everyone knows election promises are never kept not always the fault of the incoming government since they soon discover that not everything they were told whilst in opposition was technically on the up and up.  Effectively an election promise turns into dust when rammed against the hard rock of reality.

The other key to Brexit was having a stupid opposition that assumed they would win no matter what happened, that sort of optimism will always breed disaster for those that believe it.

You really did not need Farage there at all it would of happened without him, he was just going along for the ride paid for by the EU which is a whooping £109K salary including expenses.  More taxpayers money down the drain at least all of Europe contributes to his salary not just the UK.  I wonder how much Trump paid him to put in an appearance in Mississippi and has he declared it?

Admittedly this is nothing compare to (excerpt from Wikipedia):

“In May 2009, The Observer reported a Foreign Press Association speech given by Farage in which he had said that over his period as a Member of the European Parliament he had received a total of £2 million of taxpayers' money in staff, travel, and other expenses. In response, Farage said that in future all UKIP MEPs would provide monthly expense details.”

Conspiracy theorists will be having a field day with Farage and Trump, what really is happening in Mississippi?  Probably has something to do with Tall Eight hundred year old aliens, which is also just misinformation from a document supposedly created by the KGB to scare the west.

I do find it ironic that a MEP is considered to be instrumental in breaking up the EU when in fact it was the pro-EU Conservatives that did most of the damage themselves.

I am surprised the EU cannot sack him under the premise that he is working against the stability of the Union.

Dilbert’s strip today works on so many levels including politics perhaps it should be called: Fararumptium:

Planned Chaos

This is my very last post on the EU referendum after this I am moving on to other things.  Looking back on the two campaigns it seems to me that the Remain bunch were not trying particular hard at all, one would think they were trying to lose.  Was Cameron looking for a good excuse to resign?  Both France and Germany did there level best to scare us into staying like that has ever worked historically.  I know what you are thinking that it is beginning sound very conspiracy theory, still it seems a little odd.

Then we have Nigel Farage's statement about not guaranteeing £350 million to the NHS, the perfect man for the job not an MP no longer a MEP since the exit.  I am just waiting for the next big scandal in Westminster regarding exactly how much the EU referendum cost the taxpayer.  It definitely feels like the Government used the British public in a gigantic magic trick, pick any card and we ended up with one they wanted to us take.  Why do you think Farage was happy to sit on national television and tell everyone that the main marketing slogan on the side of the bus was a lie.

As for the Bank of England and the £250 million injection has it happened or not?  They said they willing to do it:

The Bank of England announced it will make a further £250 billion available to banks in a bid to steady the markets following the dramatic post-Brexit crash.

The thing is the FTSE made a significant recovery by the close of business on Friday, does the Bank of England really want to risk a hike in inflation?

This vote has split the nation in two but how long will it last, well Britain's Got Talent does not start again until next year so I will be interested to see what misdirection(s) happen next.

I am being extremely cynical or just good at reading into between lines, only the future knows for sure.  Ironic that half of us are stuck in the past, which half is anybodies guess.

Additional Note: Was it all a pointless vote and we will have to wait for an Act of Parliament to trigger Article 50 so we can leave. The lights are still on.

Cock Up!

What are the immediate effects of Britain leaving the EU, aside from Nigel Farage's u turn on NHS spending:

“No I can’t [guarantee it], and I would never have made that claim. That was one of the mistakes that I think the Leave campaign made,” he said.

When it was pointed out that Vote Leave emblazoned the £350 million claim onto the side of a tour bus and drove it around the country, Mr Farage said.
“It wasn’t one of my adverts – I can assure you! I think they made a mistake in doing that.

Translation is pretty basic: GOTCHA!

In other news the FTSE dropped by more than 8% which is a lost of £140 billion wiped from the market, taking us back in time to 1985.  The Bank of England responded saying that they intend to inject £250 billion back into economy to stabilize the markets.  The problem with that is you are effectively printing more money which will devalue the Pound further than it already has dropped today.

Inflation will rise also which is never a good thing:

"Fall in value of savings. If people have cash savings, then inflation will erode the value  of your savings. £1 million marks in 1921 was a lot. But, two years later, your savings would have become worthless. High inflation can also reduce the incentive to save.

Menu costs. If inflation is very high then it becomes harder to make transactions. Prices frequently change. Firms have to spend more on changing price lists. In the hyperinflation of Germany, prices rose so rapidly, people used to get paid twice a day. If you didn’t buy bread straight away, it would become too expensive. This destabilizes an economy.

Uncertainty and confusion. High inflation creates uncertainty. Periods of high inflation discourage firms from investing and can lead to lower economic growth."

Quote from: Economics Help

Increased inflation may force the Bank of England to raise interest rates in attempt to attract investors back to Britain.  Which is good thing for savers and bad thing for people with mortgages and those looking to buy. How I wish I made more over-payments on my mortgage instead of enjoying myself.

A lower Pound does mean UK exports will be cheaper in theory although should we exit the single market in 5 years time the tariffs we will end paying will probably offset the profits achieved.  UK imports however will become more expensive and we do import a lot.  Obviously this will push prices up!

In April 2016 the value of exports (EU and Non-EU) increased to £25.0 billion, and imports (EU and Non-EU) increased to £41.0 billion, compared with last month. Consequently the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £16.0 billion.

Quote from: HM Revenue & Customs

Well done to 52% of the population of Britain you have managed Cock Up the economy, you have nobody to blame but yourselves this time.

This is just the thin of the wedge!

Where Anything is Possible

Next Thursday is the EU referendum and sorting all the arguments is a complete nightmare but lets start by looking at the bigger picture that is currently evolving from the EU camp first the German finance minister threatens Britain that we would not be allowed to enter the single market if we left and now the French minister Mr Macron says:

"Leaving the EU would mean the 'Guernseyfication' of the UK, which would then be a little country on the world scale. It would isolate itself and become a trading post and arbitration place at Europe's border."

It seems to me that the EU are doing their best to scare us and perhaps they think it is a little bit of reverse psychology in that they pushing us away to make us stay.  No offense to the voters out there but that is probably a little too clever for anyone to pick up on.  The last time Germany made threats we ended up with two world wars and I am sure nobody in their right minds wants to see that again.

What does it mean to be in the single market (good and bad):

• Free movement of goods - no customs at borders, goods are inspected at the traders premises
• No tax on goods - that's a good thing.
• Free movement of capital - this is brilliant news for terrorists far easy to conduct Money laundering.
• Free movement of services - which includes Internet purchases, how much do you buy from Internet because it is cheaper?
• Freedom of establishment - Set up a company anywhere in the EU (barring non-profit) great for avoiding paying taxes (sometimes)
• Digital Single Market - Internet, Telecoms (no more roaming charges), Delivery rates, copyright
• Free movement of persons - That means anyone in the EU can work, play or retire anywhere else in the EU plus there are no border controls.

The key issue is Freedom, remove these freedoms from the EU and you get a Police state.  Leaving the EU means leaving those freedoms behind will that change our internal freedoms hopefully not but by leaving we would be entering unknown territory effectively swapping the order of freedom with the chaos of freedom.  Chaos is where anything is possible good or bad.  Which would you prefer to do stay safe in the status quo or risk everyone's freedom, are we that selfish?.

Should we leave then other countries may decide to leave too which could create a snowballing effect to the breaking apart of the EU.  We would back to the 1940s (or worse the 1920s and the depression) and you only need one country to get too ambitious.  History repeats itself again and again, humanity makes it look easy.

Then you will have World War III, it is as simple as that (by 2030).

We all live on the planet for a short time and we are all abysmal at getting along with one another.  Mostly because we want more.

When I first started writing this article I was prepared to be swayed to the leavers side, I thought rocking the boat would be a good idea that chaos in a limited form would be okay but when you follow the simple logic through, the future prospect of a war in Europe is too great to ignore.  I have not directly experienced war (only the desensitized knowledge of what I see on the news) but my parents have.  They do not talk about it, why would want to talk about something that made you feel completely helpless.  In World War I we lost a complete generation of men and women, the second version was far worse.  A lot of the voters in this country have never known war and probably do not see it as a potential future threat but it is very real.

The problem is that most people do look that far ahead maybe five years maximum me included in fact I barely look a year ahead.  With a decision like this you have to look at least twenty to fifty years ahead which could be quite easily beyond many the current voters life spans but it is not beyond their children's.  When I give to charity it is always a children's one because they are our future, should we vote to leave then we could be taking their future from them.  How selfish are we?

There are arguments on both sides but this is the only one that really matters.

Chaos without Order is Anarchy and that only leads to a death.